A dynamic water-quality modeling framework for the Neuse River estuary, North Carolina
Water-Resources Investigations Report 99-4017
By J.D. Bales and J.C. Robbins
Full Report (PDF, 42 pages, 7 Mb)
Abstract
As a result of fish kills in the Neuse River estuary in 1995, nutrient
reduction strategies were developed for point and nonpoint sources in
the basin. However, because of the interannual variability in the
natural system and the resulting complex hydrologic-nutrient inter-
actions, it is difficult to detect through a short-term observational
program the effects of management activities on Neuse River estuary
water quality and aquatic health. A properly constructed water-quality
model can be used to evaluate some of the potential effects of manage-
ment actions on estuarine water quality. Such a model can be used to
predict estuarine response to present and proposed nutrient strategies
under the same set of meteorological and hydrologic conditions, thus
removing the vagaries of weather and streamflow from the analysis.
A two-dimensional, laterally averaged hydrodynamic and water-quality
modeling framework was developed for the Neuse River estuary by using
previously collected data. Development of the modeling framework
consisted of (1) computational grid development, (2) assembly of data
for model boundary conditions and model testing, (3) selection of
initial values of model parameters, and (4) limited model testing.
The model domain extends from Streets Ferry to Oriental, N.C., includes
seven lateral embayments that have continual exchange with the main-
stem of the estuary, three point-source discharges, and three tributary
streams. Thirty-five computational segments represent the mainstem of
the estuary, and the entire framework contains a total of 60 computa-
tional segments. Each computational cell is 0.5 meter thick; segment
lengths range from 500 meters to 7,125 meters.
Data that were used to develop the modeling framework were collected
during March through October 1991 and represent the most comprehensive
data set available prior to 1997. Most of the data were collected by
the North Carolina Division of Water Quality, the University of North
Carolina Institute of Marine Sciences, and the U.S. Geological Survey.
Limitations in the modeling framework were clearly identified. These
limitations formed the basis for a set of suggestions to refine the
Neuse River estuary water-quality model.
Citation:
Bales, J.D., and Robbins, J.C., 1999, A dynamic water-quality modeling framework for the Neuse River estuary, North Carolina: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 99-4017, 35 p.
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North Carolina Water Science Center
U.S. Geological Survey
3916 Sunset Ridge Road
Raleigh, North Carolina 27607
(919) 571-4000
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